Ryazan, Orel, Russian Federation
UDC 332.1
Introduction. In the context of geopolitical transformation and the closure of traditional export markets, the Russian Federation’s timber industry has faced systemic overcapacity and structural production surpluses. Reorientation towards Asian markets does not fully compensate for export losses in high value-added product segments. Against the backdrop of overall growth in Russia’s housing stock, there has been a decline in the share of wooden house construction (from 16.87 % to 15.80 %), which indicates the ineffectiveness of market mechanisms alone in stimulating domestic wood consumption. The aim of the study is to provide scientific justification for a model of institutional demand for timber industry products through direct government procurement mechanisms for the construction of service housing for law enforcement agencies (Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia, Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, Russian Guard) using industrial timber house construction technologies. Methods. The article uses tools for comparative and statistical analysis of data from the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation for the period 2020-2024. The author has aggregated export indicators and production activity in the industry. The calculation of the potential for absorbing the raw material surplus was performed using a technical and economic modelling method with the application of average coefficients of sawn timber consumption per unit of area introduced. The results of the study proved that achieving the target share of wooden housing construction at 20-25 % (20-25 million m² per year) ensures the absorption of the domestic surplus of sawn timber in the amount of 10 million m³, which mathematically fully compensates for the decline in export supplies. A growing reduction in the state housing stock and the critical inefficiency of the system of oneoff social payments, with a waiting period of more than 20 years, have been identified. A model for transitioning to direct state orders for prefabricated housing made of CLT and frame-panel structures has been proposed, which would stabilise the forestry sector.
timber industry complex, timber house construction, institutional demand, economic security
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